Association of European Airlines

Trends

► 18 December 2009
Traffic Trends: October 2009
Passenger and freight traffic have seen a continuous decline over a protracted period of time. RTK volumes are now back at 2005 levels, with little hope for immediate relief. In passenger traffic European routes lost most, most longhaul regions were also affected. Traffic flows between Europe and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East will post positive growth in 2009, although load factor was lost as airlines added too much capacity. One in four passengers lost was a premium passenger. Yields slide by -14.4%. Any return of travel for business in 2010 is not expected to be premium traffic. Rising unemployment levels will limit leisure demand. EU27 economies will see GDP shrink by -4.1% in 2009, with expectation for 2010 very subdued, at +0.7%. Several fundamentals suggest little return of traffic demand through the early months of 2010. Even if volume returns, value is still a long way off. Read more

       Financial Trends: Q3 2009
Access to new and affordable funding is limited, as European airline stock price levels remain depressed. Smaller carriers in particular are seeing cash levels squeezed due to the financial crisis. Yields continue to show substantial and accelerating weakness, now at -14.4% over 2008, driven by slow demand and loss of premium traffic. Some cost items, notable airport charges and navigation charges as well as fuel prices continue to rise, hampering efforts to cut costs. Traditionally the most profitable quarters of the year, 2009 brought negative EBIT in both Q2 and Q3, for the very first time, in addition to a negative Q1. AEA has now revised it’s financial result for 2009 down, from EUR -2.9 bn to between EUR -3 bn and EUR -3.5 bn. Read more

Source 2008

► 15 July 2008
European Economy: Denmark slides into Recession
The 27 countries of the EU saw GDP growth in Q1 2008 of 0.7% GDP over previous quarter, marginally below the 0.8% rate previously forecast. Following a poor performance in Q4 2007, of just 0.5% growth, finance ministers were satisfied but do not expect this resilience to be maintained into the second quarter. Last year the European Commission estimated annual GDP growth for Europe of 2.4%, although the end figures will now be lower as the downside risks grow. Read more

► 15 July 2008
European Household Budgets:
Air Travel just 1% of Total Spending
Eurostat has published its latest Household Budget Survey based on data for 2005. Read more

► 04 July 2008 - Guest Article: David Marsh (EUROCONTROL)
More to the point: Business Aviation in Europe in 2007
This continues to be a time of change for business aviation in Europe. New business models have been gaining ground in the USA for some years. Although the legal, social and geographical conditions are different, these new business models are being increasingly adapted for use in Europe. The result is that the business aviation segment is growing faster than the overall air traffic market. However, this growth is not uniform, so we need to ask where the growth will be and how much?. Read more

► 20 March 2008
EU-US Open Aviation Area: Effective 30th March 2008
Negotiations started in 2003, lasted 5 years and took 11 rounds to finally reach an OAA between the EU and US which went into effect on 30th March 2008. This first stage agreement lifts some of the traffic restrictions of the former bilaterals and is expected to bring more traffic and competiotn to this market of 55 million passengers anually. Read more

► 20 March 2008
An EU-Canada Open Aviation Area on the Horizon
As a next step towards achieving targeted aviation agreements with selected third countries, the European Union is now turning its attention to Canada. Read more

► 03 March 2008 - Guest Article: Alex de Gunten (ALTA)
Latin America:
One of the Fastest Growing Aviation Markets in the World
As one of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world, the Latin America and Caribbean region has successfully overcome numerous challenges and is expected to continue to spread its wings into the future. Read more

► 03 March 2008
Turbulence ahead:
How Economic Slowdown will hit European Air transport
In 2007 the world economy grew by a healthy 4.9%, a better than expected performance which builds on the 5% growth in GDP reached in previous year. However, the annual figure masks a more disturbing quarterly development, with the buoyancy of the first 6 months and a particularly strong third quarter being followed by a dramatic moderation in the final quarter amid the US mortgage crisis and turmoil in the financial markets which has persisted to date. Read more

► 03 March 2008
Traffic Trends 2007; Outlook 2008
2007 was another year of growth. AEA airlines have transported more passengers - on average +4.1% to all major traffic regions. Longhaul activities seemed to have reached their market potential ceiling, with Asia tending to a zero-growth. Read more

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